Relative CO2
emissions from power stations fired by wood or coal –
Comments on the model by
Peter Barnes
July 2001

An unpublished model constructed by Peter Barnes compares
gross and net CO2 emissions from wood- and coal-fired power stations
(PS), based on a recent proposal by the NSW Forest Products Association
(FPA). Based on outputs from the model
Barnes claimed that ‘while on native-forest fuel, a wood PS causes about 5
times the CO2 output of a coal PS’, and that ‘for power supply, native
forest is not CO2 neutral, it is far worse than coal’.
The model has several critical flaws, assumptions, and
errors of logic that invalidate these conclusions.
The main problems with the model are that it:
§
Assumes
native old growth is harvested and replaced by plantation on a 25-yr
rotation. The stems only are removed to
fire the PS, residues being left on site to decay. Under existing NSW and Commonwealth legislation this is an almost
impossible scenario. It is also unlikely because of price competition by high
value veneer, sawlogs, pulpwood and composite board markets.
§
The
assumed rate of growth of the plantation is excessively low (6.5 m3
ha-1 yr-1), less than half that for typical managed
plantations.
§
CO2
output (Sheet 3) is calculated using gross emissions only, including
those from decaying residues left on site.
That is, no uptake of CO2 by the regrowing forest is counted.
In any case, counting gross emissions is inappropriate because even undisturbed
forests at equilibrium (0 net emissions) emit a gross amount of
CO2.
§
The
expansion factor (ratio of total biomass to stem biomass) used for native
forest is much too high, by nearly a factor 2.
§
Incorrect
values have been used for parameters to calculate the energy yield from wood,
namely low heating values and low energy conversions compared with coal.
Using correct parameter values in the model, and an
appropriate and legal, renewable forest system in NSW, it is shown that burning
coal releases about 8 times more CO2 into the atmosphere than a
forest managed for sawn timber and where wastes and residues are used for power
generation. Recent overseas studies
have shown that the net emission of CO2 from a coal-fired PS is
about 30 times that from a wood-fired PS (DTI, 1999).
Three basic principles need to be kept in mind when
comparing net emissions of CO2 derived from forests and coal to
generate electricity:
§
Fossil
fuels are not renewable so that when coal or gas is burnt there is a gross
emission of CO2 that can never be removed from the atmosphere by the
fossil fuel.
§
When
a forest is harvested or burnt by wildfire and the wood used for any
purpose, there is initially a net emission of CO2 that progressively
declines as the stand ages and uptake by the regrowing vegetation
dominates. At the end of the rotation
the net emission of CO2 is close to zero (Polglase et al. 1994).
§
When
some of the wood from a harvested or burnt forest is used to generate
electricity, substituting for coal, an additional benefit from harnessing this
renewable energy source is gained and less CO2 remains in the
atmosphere than would otherwise be the case because the coal is left in the
ground.
This basic framework, apart
from being self-evident, has been quantified by credible life cycle assessments
that have compared CO2 emissions from wood- and coal-fired power
stations. The contrary model of Barnes
should be submitted to a scientific journal for peer review before being cited
as evidence for the role of forest-based bioenergy in greenhouse gas balances.
§
Realistically,
for power supply, native forest is not CO2 neutral, it is far worse
than coal.
§
‘The
community is vehemently opposed to the exploiting of native forest for
electricity generation, and this report justifies the level of hostility from
the public towards these proposal’,
§
‘Defenders
of the plan have tried to stretch scientific arguments to justify unsustainable
practices’, and that
§
‘The
facts are that wood is an inefficient source of power and burning it for this
purpose will release more CO2 into the atmosphere than existing coal
fired stations’.
These
statements were made without qualification.
The
aim here is to objectively and independently review the scientific framework
and assumptions of the Barnes model.
The version of the model reviewed is ‘Wood Pwr in XL-97 Rev.H.xls’
although we note that subsequent versions of the model have been constructed,
with much the same output as in the ‘H’ version.
The
model is based on the proposal by the FPA that 3 power stations be built in NSW,
fired by biomass, each with a generating capacity of 30 MW. It is important to recognise the assumptions
underlying the Barnes model and key parameters that were used:
Assumptions
§
The
model ignores the Commonwealth and State legislative framework required by the
Renewable Energy (Electricity) Act (2000) and its ESD provisions, and the
Native Vegetation Conservation Act (1997).
§
A
wood-fired PS is built, and the emissions associated with that construction are
debited against the wood PS in a partial life-cycle assessment. There is no such debiting for the coal
station because the coal-fired power station is assumed to already exist.
§
In
the first 25 years an area of native forest, which is assumed to be more or
less in equilibrium, is logged. Stems
only are taken to the wood-fired power station and burnt. Residues (branches, leaves, and roots) are
left behind to decompose.
§
Each
area of native forest harvested is then replaced with eucalypt plantation on a
25-yr rotation. After the first 25
years this plantation then begins to be used as the biomass resource.
§
The
rate of plantation growth is slow, having a mean annual volume increment of 6.5
m3 ha-1 yr-1 over 25 years.
§
When
plantations come on line, they are harvested in preference to native forest, enough
native forest then being harvested to make up the difference. This continues until the whole native forest
area has been converted to plantation (effectively delineating the project
boundary).
§
Stems
only in the
plantation are taken to the wood-fired power station and burnt. Residues
(branches, leaves, and roots) are left behind to decompose.
§
The
project has a life-span of 80 years, which means no more burning of wood for
power generation. However, after 80
years, the plantations continue to be harvested (keeping their carbon density
low) and net emissions are then debited against the wood-fired power station.
§
The
first commitment period under the Kyoto Protocol is used as a reference for net
emissions from the wood- and coal-fired PSs.
§
The
calorific values (MJ kg-1)
are 10 for wood (35% moisture content) and 20 for black coal.
§
The
efficiencies for conversion (%) are 15 for wood, 27 for brown coal, and 36 for
black coal.
§
An
expansion factor of 2.5 is used to convert stem biomass to total biomass for
native forest, and a factor of 1.6 is used for plantations.
These
validity of these assumptions and parameter values is considered below.
CO2 Output (Sheet 3)
It
compares the gross CO2-output associated with coal with that
generated from harvesting (diesel use) and burning wood (PS emissions). For the wood PS it includes emissions from
residues left decaying on the forest floor.
This in particular is inappropriate because:
i.
There
is no allowance for any replacement by the forest of the carbon emitted, and
ii.
These
residues could be utilised by the wood PS.
In undisturbed
forest at equilibrium, CO2 is constantly emitted by the decay of
litterfall (leaves, branches), sloughed roots, and from fallen whole stems
(mortality). Counting gross CO2
emissions from litter decay in the model, without matching uptake, is like
counting gross emissions from the undisturbed mature forest. These typically might be 18 t CO2 ha-1 yr-1 but are
matched by an equal amount in the opposite direction so that net emissions are
zero.
It
also compares gross CO2 output over the first 25 years of the
project. Why was this period chosen
when gross emissions from the coal- and wood-fired stations are still rising –
that is they are on lines of different slopes?
It would make more sense to consider net emissions at the end of
the project, and even better sense to consider the time frame of a forest
cycle.
No
allowance had been made for the embedded CO2 emissions associated
with building successive power stations if the assessment period is greater
than the life of a one-off power station.
The
only sensible way to compare gross CO2 output between coal
and wood is by using conversion efficiency and specific CO2 yields
of the respective fuels.
In
order to generate 1GWh of electricity, the correct formula would be:
Gross
CO2 output/unit of electrical energy produced = (CO2/energy)
/ conversion efficiency
Thus
the CO2 out of the power station stack in order to generate 1 GWh of
electricity for each of the fuels is:
|
|
CO2/energy (kt
CO2 PJ-1)* |
Conversion
efficiency (%) |
CO2
output (kt
CO2 GWh-1) |
|
|
|
|
|
Wood |
94 |
20 |
1.69 |
|
Brown coal |
93 |
27 |
1.24 |
|
Black coal |
92 |
36 |
0.92 |
*from NSW Department of Energy
(now NSW MoU, 2000).
Note
that the values for specific CO2 yield and conversion efficiency have
been revised from the original Barnes model (see discussion below).
Thus
it is generally true that burning wood releases more CO2 per unit of
electricity generated than burning coal.
But because coal is not a renewable resource, in terms of greenhouse gas
balances and what the atmosphere sees, it is much more important to include
complete life cycle assessment to calculate net CO2 emissions over
the life cycle of a forest. Sheets 4
and 5 of the Barnes model attempt to do this, but do so incorrectly.
The
amount of CO2 that remains in the atmospheric is directly related to
the conversion of fossil carbon into atmospheric CO2. Carbon is
sustainably managed forest is an integral part of the dynamic non-anthropogenic
carbon exchanges with the atmosphere. Harnessing the energy flows from this
renewable resource for power generation is therefore carbon neutral.
The Barnes analysis assumes permanent
conversion of forest from high carbon density to low carbon density. This is a form of land-use change and, in
part, accounts for the disparity between CO2 emissions from the wood
and coal PSs. This assumption is
incorrect on several fronts:
§
This
was not part of the FPA proposal. Again,
they proposed only to use residues and mill waste from sustainably managed
forest (forest that returns to equilibrium).
§
Under
NSW legislation (Native Vegetation and Conservation Act ) clearing of native
forest is strictly controlled and the assumptions in the model are unlikely at
any significant scale. The Regional
Forest Agreement has also specified areas of public native forest that are to
be sustainably managed.
§
Over
the time scale of centuries, forest will always have the potential to return to
equilibrium, in contrast to fossil fuels sources (and see discussion below
under ‘Carbon balances in forests and implications for the Barnes model’). Over the past 160 years the concentration of
CO2 in the atmosphere has risen from about 290 parts per million
(ppm) to about 370 ppm. Thus sudden
rise has been due mostly to the burning of fossil fuels, but also to the
permanent conversion of forest to cultivated land. Emissions from forest fires and sustainably managed forest have
contributed little, the CO2 balance returning to zero.
§
The
carbon stock of the entire forest estate needs to be considered, not just
patches of forest.
This is very low, being only 6.5 m3
ha-1 yr-1 over 25 years.
A more realistic value would be at least 15 m3 ha-1
yr-1 for a reasonably managed forest. This translates into a ‘log density at harvest’ (stem mass) of
300 t ha-1.
To be consistent, for the native forest a
log density at harvest of 350 t ha-1 yr-1 could be
assumed.
This assumption is incorrect (see above
on ‘Conversion of old growth to plantation’).
Under current Renewable Energy legislation only residues can be
used. The FPA stated that only mill
waste and in some cases residues on the forest floor, left after harvesting,
would be utilised in a wood PS.
Therefore the analysis cannot be based on use of stems. Also, the use of
stems is unlikely because of price competition by high value veneer, sawlogs,
pulpwood and composite board markets.
The model is very sensitive to the
expansion factor. The value of 2.5 used
for native forest is much too high.
The expansion factor is defined by Barnes
as:
(carbon in total living biomass) /
(carbon in stems).
Barnes used a CSIRO report (Snowdon et
al., 2000) for deriving the value, stating that a ‘value of 2.5 seems
conservative as CSIRO reports up to 5.0’.
The
CSIRO report defined the expansion factor as:
(carbon
in total above-ground biomass cut) / (carbon used commercially).
The
value of 5 cited was for plantations only where there is low recovery of stems
for pulp wood. The expansion factor
generally decreases from high values of 3 to 4 in plantations less than 5 years
old to a value not much more than 1 at maturity (Snowdon et al., 2000). For mature native forest there are few good
data for expansion factors. However, as
a tree matures the long-lived stem tends to dominate and becomes an
increasingly high proportion of the biomass.
The Snowdon et al. (2000) report notes
that the average value for expansion factor (as they defined it) was about 1.4
for native forest but they noted that this was possibly based on incomplete
measurement of the stem. Note also that
this excludes the contribution by roots.
The root:shoot ratio is about 0.2 to 0.25 in forest, but again can be
expected to be lower than this in mature forest.
Using the above information and modelling
studies (Polglase et al., 1994) an expansion factor of 1.3 to 1.5 is
appropriate for mature forest, including roots.
Use of uptake by old growth in
calculations
This is inappropriate, the rate of uptake
by old-growth forest (Un) should be set to 0.
It is not reasonable to count uptake by an area of unharvested forest
(or unmanaged for that matter) in any calculation. This effectively sets an inappropriate boundary for the project. See later comment under ‘Carbon balances in
forests and implications for the Barnes model’.
Counting emissions from construction of
the wood PS
There was no such adjustment for the coal
PS as it was assumed that the coal-fired power station already exists. In terms of what the atmosphere sees over
time, there was a cost (emission) associated with building the coal PS in the
first instance, and that CO2 is effectively still in the
atmosphere. In order to be consistent,
and compare like with like, the emission cost of building the coal PS, at least
on a pro-rata basis (ie 30 MW worth of the coal-fired station), should also be
factored in, or emissions associated with building the wood PS not counted.
This has now been corrected in the latest version of the model available.
The
model is very sensitive to this parameter. For coal in the Barnes model, a
gross calorific value (HHV) has been used. For consistency therefore, HHV will
be used throughout. A value of 10 MJ kg-1
is given for the net calorific value (LHV, 35% moisture content) in the Barnes
model, but this should be reset to 13 MJ kg-1 (gross calorific
value, ie HHV).
The
model is again very sensitive to this parameter. A value of 15% is given for wood, but is at the low end of the
range. Efficiencies of at least 20%
would be appropriate for a 30 MW unit, and up to 27%. There is no one “correct”
value – plant efficiency depends on the capital that the developers are
prepared to spend, condensor conditions, etc. It is important that if HHV calorific
value is used for the fuel, a comparable HHV boiler efficiency is assumed.
Alternatively, if LHV calorific value is used, a comparable LHV boiler
efficiency should be used. Either method will give the same end result if
consistency is maintained. At this capacity, steam conditions are less than is
typical for large coal-fired power stations, and reheat is not an economic
option, so steam cycle efficiency suffers as a result. For example,
temperatures may be of the order of 500oC instead of 540 oC.
A condensing turbine is assumed, although the temperature of the cooling medium
this will also have a significant effect on efficiency. Higher efficiencies are possible, but at a
higher capital cost, and lower efficiencies at a lower capital cost. In this
paper, 20% (on an HHV basis) is assumed, erring on the conservative side. In
practice, 23% (HHV) might be a more typical figure, which is roughly equivalent
to 27% on an LHV basis at 35% moisture.
This
is a derived value in the model. In fact wood has a fairly consistent carbon
content on a dry basis and %component depends on free moisture content (ash
content is low and fairly constant). CO2 emissions are then simply a
stoichiometric calculation from conversion of C to CO2, assuming
100% combustion efficiency (in practice probably about 99%, depending on C
burn-out). It is therefore better to
use data from the NSW Emissions Workbook which specifies CO2
emissions from wood and wood waste of 94 kt of CO2 released per PJ
of wood fuel combusted. This compares to a derived value of 122 kt PJ-1
in the spreadsheet.
It is interesting to note that, in the
model, when 13 MJ kg-1 is used for calorific value and 20% for
efficiency, the derived yield is 92 kt
CO2 PJ-1, in line with the expected value of 94 kt CO2 PJ-1.
Kyoto commitment period as a reference
point
It is not relevant in the Barnes model to
compare net emissions from wood- and coal-fired PSs during the first commitment
period of the Kyoto protocol. This is
because emissions from bioenergy projects are not counted under the terms of
the Kyoto protocol, in recognition that forests are a renewable resource and
that bioenergy projects have net emissions close to 0.
Given the complexity of the workbook and the equations
contained within, it is not possible to ensure that changing parameters retains
internal consistency without having to change other equations or
parameters. Nonetheless, changing
parameters as suggested below is enlightening.
The parameters apply to the Life Cycle Assessment (LCA), they do not
apply the calculation of gross CO2 output which, as mentioned above,
has incorrect assumptions embedded within it.
Furthermore, at this stage it assumed that the general forest system of
replacing mature forest with plantation is retained. A more realistic forest regime and its outputs is given at the
end of this paper.
Using the revised parameter and input values below, net
emission after 100 years from the wood PS is nearly one-fifth (20%) of that
from coal PS (see Figure below). In the
original version of the model it was calculated that burning wood emitted 2.5
times more CO2 than coal after 100 years. Therefore this is a turnaround by a factor of about 13 (2.5/
0.2), keeping the same basic forest management system assumed by Barnes which,
in any case is unrealistic.
|
Parameter |
Old
value |
New
value |
Cell reference |
|
Net
calorific value |
10 |
11 |
Sheet
4. E6 |
|
Or
Gross calorific value (MJ/kg) |
|
13 |
Sheet
4. E6 |
|
Conversion
efficiency (%) |
15 |
20 |
Sheet
4. E8 |
|
Expansion
factor for native forest |
2.5 |
1.5 |
Sheet
4. E22 |
|
Native
forest log density at harvest (t ha-1) |
250 |
350 |
Sheet
5. C9 |
|
Plantation
log density at harvest (t ha-1) |
126 |
300 |
Sheet
5. H9 |
|
Native
forest uptake (t CO2 ha-1 yr-1) |
1 |
0 |
Sheet
4. E26 |
|
Post
Life-cycle Plant'n Harvest (%) |
90 |
0 |
Sheet
4. E17 |
|
CO2
emission from construction of wood PS (kt CO2) |
2879 |
0 |
Sheet
5. I33 |

Net emissions of
CO2 with revised parameter values.
This simulation retained the assumptions that old growth forest is
replaced by plantation, and that stems are burnt in the PS but residues left in
the forest.
The Barnes analysis assumes an area of native forest in
equilibrium, defines this as the project boundary, and includes only uptake
from this area in its calculation of CO2 balances. This basic assumption is unrealistic because
it ignores forest dynamics and greenhouse gas balances across a forest estate.
Forests at the landscape level (several hundreds or
thousands of square km) are in various stages of growth. Some patches of forest will be mature (0 net
CO2 emission), some will be actively growing having been disturbed
(+ve CO2 uptake), and some (a small proportion in Australia) will be
old and senescing (-ve CO2 uptake).
Note that the state of these forests will be equally due to management
(eg harvesting) as it is to natural disturbances (eg fire) or their
absence. The National Greenhouse Gas
Inventory (NGGI) considers Australia’s forest to be a net sink for CO2.
It is more realistic to consider project boundaries across
the forest estate where disturbance and uptake are approximately equal, and
where harvesting causes no net emission of CO2, whether or not the
wood is used for electricity generation.
In the Barnes analysis any disturbance to a forest where wood is used
for power generation is counted, incorrectly, as a net positive emission. This concept is explored explicitly in the
following section.
7. A realistic forest model for CO2
emissions from harvested forest, with use of residues and waste for bioenergy
One scenario for a forest model would have the following
assumptions (and simplifications).
§
The
project life is 80 years
§
100
year rotation in regrowth forest
§
Soil
carbon does not change
§
The
forest is harvested for saw logs, all logs being removed from the forest
§
The
recovery of a sawn product is 35% from a log, the rest going to off-cuts and
saw dust
§
Wood
products have a mean turnover time of 100 years
§
All
residues left lying on the forest floor are removed and used for energy
generation
§
The
site is resown (ie not coppiced), an as such only roots are left on site to
decompose
§
Off-cuts
and saw dust are used for energy generation
§
Root
residues (mainly coarse woody roots) have a mean turnover time of 10 years
§
After
harvest the forest is regenerated and returns to its previous carbon density
§
For
a forest of reasonable growth we assume that the total amount of dry matter at
equilibrium (100 years) is 360 t ha-1
§
Wood
is 35% moisture on a wet basis as per the Barnes analysis, although 50% would
be more appropriate.
§
The
total amount of wood required is 280 kt year-1
§
The
expansion factor for the mature native forest is 1.3.
There
a number of important points in this analysis:
§
It
accounts for all CO2 emissions from a harvested forest, whether wood
is used for power generation or not.
§
A
similar pattern of emission would be obtained whether wood was used for pulp,
power, or sawn timber. This is because
the recovery of sawn timber from wood is low and the sawdust and off-cuts are
usually burnt anyway, or landfilled.
§
When
forest products are not used for bioenergy (ie. exclusively for pulp or sawn
timber, or disposed of) there is a net build-up of about 16 Mt of CO2
because coal is used as the only source for electricity generation. When residues and mill waste are used for
electricity generation, the net emission from the forest/ wood PS system is
about 1 Mt of CO2 after about 150 years, saving about 15 Mt of CO2
from accumulating in the atmosphere.
§
It
therefore follows that, to limit the net emission of greenhouse gases into the
atmosphere, it is better to use as much wood as possible in a PS (either alone,
with co-generation, or in co-firing).
§
The
high rate of emission from the forest is also partly because of the assumed
diesel expansion factor (0.2).

An example of net CO2
emissions (build-up) from coal and wood-fired power stations. In this scenario
almost all the available wood is used at the power station except for 35% of
the stem which is used for sawn timber.
The pattern of emission would be typical for any forest whether burnt by
wildfire or harvested for pulp, sawn timber or bioenergy. The scenario is also for any given patch of
forest. In reality, forests across the
landscape are either absorbing or releasing CO2 so that the net
emission across large areas and at the time scale of forest cycles is about 0
(see ‘Carbon balances in forests and implications for the Barnes model’).
·
The
Barnes model calculates that the unit cost of power would be about 22 c kWh-1
from the wood-fired PS. It is not our
intention to review in detail the comparative comments of the Barnes economic
analysis - the economic viability of any enterprise will be determined by more
thorough analysis by the project developer.
However, in this section we present some indicative industry data for
wood-fired PSs.
·
The
Barnes document creates difficulties in taking data from a number of different
sources. Does the 15% efficiency taken from the CSIRO/SEDA study correlate with
the plant design of FPA? The capital
cost of an installed 30 MW plant of $40 M may be low, $1500 kW-1
would be more typical, including external plant such as switchyards. It is not known if the FPA have included
some fuel processing in the price of fuel rather than as capital at the power
station for example. This would account
for the $40 t-1 fuel price in the Barnes model, which is high when
about a third of the resource is coming from sawmill and chipmill residues. The
point should be made again that a low capital cost plant with low efficiency
could give the same economic outcome as a high capital cost plant with higher
efficiency. This is an optimisation that needs to be undertaken by the project
developers who have a better idea of fuel and operation and maintenance costs,
and the trade-offs between capital and efficiency.
·
$80
t-1 is too high for the cost of black coal. In NSW, the marginal
cost of black coal power (ie fuel + O&M) is typically less than 3 c kWh-1.
The 4 c kWh-1 for black coal is the high end of the range for cost of electricity from a new black
coal-fired power station.
·
The
capital charge of 20% is unrealistically high. A 25-year plant life and 12%
discount rate for example would give an annual capital charge on $40 M capex of
$5.2 M. It is also noted that the Barnes model uses FPA's claim of generating
93 jobs to assume this is the number of personnel in the power station. It is probable that the FPA have considered
jobs not only in the power station, but also on the forestry side, plus indirect
employment as well. A 30 MW biomass plant should be able to operate on a total
wages bill of less than $2 M yr-1.
·
The
fuel resource is generally the constraining issue for a biomass plant. If we
assume FPA's 280 kt yr-1 and 15% efficiency, this gives a capacity factor
for a 30 MW power station of 44%, which is too low to be viable. It is
suspected FPA have been working on a much higher conversion efficiency. For example, a value of 25% (HHV) would give 73% capacity factor, .
However, not too much can be presumed about FPA's calculations on availability
of resource throughout the year and power purchase agreements. Using the above
assumptions for capital and wages, Barnes assumptions for O&M, and 280 kt
yr-1 would give (all at 35% moisture content of fuel):
|
Cost of fuel
($ t-1) |
20 |
30 |
40 |
|
Efficiency (%) |
Price
of electricity (c kWh-1) |
||
|
15 |
12.3 |
14.7 |
17.0 |
|
20 |
9.2 |
11.0 |
12.8 |
|
25 |
7.4 |
8.8 |
10.2 |
DOE (Department of Energy).
http://www.eren.doe.gov/biopower/benefits/be_life_ca.htm
DTI (1999). New and renewable energy prospects in the UK for the 21 st century. ETSU Report R-122 to the UK Department of Trade and Industry. Annexe B.
NSW MoU (2000). Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Electricity Supplied in NSW: Emissions Workbook.
Polglase et al. (1994). Measurement and modelling of carbon
storage in a chronosequence of mountain ash forests. SECV report 63 p.
Snowdon et al. (2000). Synthesis of allometrics, review of
root biomass and design of future woody biomass sampling strategies. AGO
report. 133 p.
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